ESRGC Completes Coastal Resiliency Assessment for the Deal Island Peninsula

July 25, 2016 by ESRGC

The ESRGC’s Brett Dobelstein along with Dr. Michael Scott has finished the flood vulnerability study for the Deal Island Peninsula Project’s Integrated Coastal Resiliency Assessment (ICRA).  The ESRGC worked alongside over 50 stakeholders from community, state, and federal organizations to assess the resilience of the Deal Island Peninsula.  The Deal Island Peninsula is located along the eastern side of the Chesapeake Bay and consists primarily of low-lying wetlands.  With an average elevation of only three feet, the Deal Island Peninsula is subject to flooding and erosion, which are expected to worsen due to the effects of climate change.  The overall goal of the ICRA is to increase the resilience of communities and habitats of the Deal Island Peninsula to the growing risks of coastal storms, sea-level change, flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion.

The Integrated Coastal Resiliency Assessment will have three phases that will be completed using a collaboration between the scientific community and local expertise.  Phase One of the ICRA looks to determine the assessment of vulnerability based on multiple potential flooding scenarios.  Brett used multiple data sources and FEMA’s HAZUS-MH software to model the flood and damage coefficient in order to estimate for a variety of scenarios (years 2015, 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050; various tides; 10%-, 4%-, 2%-, 1%-, and .2%- chance floods.)  Sea-level change values from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) provided the future base water levels.  The FEMA Flood Insurance Study provided projected water levels during annual chance flood events.  Based on this assessment the community and project partners have highlighted five areas representative of the Deal Island Peninsula to focus on in Phase Two.  Phase Two will identify, prioritize, and target restoration and adaptive strategies to implement for each focus area.  Phase Three will select and prioritize the projects identified in Phase Two along with pursuing funding for their implementation.

For more information on the project, and to view the selected focus areas in greater detail you can visit: http://www.dealislandmarshandcommunityproject.org//#!icra/c1kze

 

These selected areas are a combination between marsh and community dominant locations.

These selected areas are a combination between marsh and community dominant locations.

2050 Mean Sea Level During 4% Annual Chance of Flood

2050 Mean Sea Level During 4% Annual Chance of Flood